Special Situations & Event-Driven

Produced in collaboration with Horizon Kinetics, The Spin-Off Report monitors the progress of all U.S. spin-offs from announcement date through when-issued trading, and continues coverage through the first quarter of trading.  The Spin-Off Calendar, published monthly, monitors the status of every pending transaction, and “Flash” reports are published to inform clients of new spin-off announcements and any significant developments with spin-offs in queue.  The service provides comprehensive research reports with fair value estimates on both the spin-off and parent company prior to divestiture. Clients also receive the Bits & Pieces report; a monthly supplement to the service that identifies mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities. The Spin-Off Report Compendium provides Murray Stahl with an effective forum to discuss the market environment for spin-offs as well investment ideas outside the traditional spin-off space, such as carve-outs, tracking stocks, and spin-offs that have fallen out of favor with investors.

  • > September 13, 2016
  • Honeywell International Inc.
  • Summary
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  • > March 16, 2016
  • Armstrong World Industries Inc.
  • Summary
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  • > October 30, 2015
  • Darden Restaurants, Inc (DRI)
  • Summary
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  • > May 18, 2015
  • Masco Corp. (MAS)
  • Summary
  • View PDF
  • > November 20, 2012
  • November 2012 Spin-Off Report Compendium
  • Summary
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  • > July 26, 2012
  • Comverse Technology Inc.
  • Summary
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  • > June 1, 2012
  • June 2012 Spin-Off Report Radar Screen
  • Summary
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  • > May 8, 2012
  • Alexander & Baldwin Inc.
  • Summary
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  • > January 1, 2012
  • January 2012 Spin-Off Report Calendar
  • Summary
  • View PDF
  • > September 28, 2011
  • General Growth Properties, Inc.
  • Summary
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  • > August 19, 2011
  • Marriott International Inc.
  • Summary
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Background of Service

Hidden Opportunities provides in-depth analysis of U.S.-listed small and mid-cap companies that present a compelling sum-of-the-parts valuation with a potential future catalyst. The research process leverages a proprietary database of companies possessing qualitative attributes that predispose them to a near-term potential catalyst. Our team’s 20 years of experience in deep sum-of-the-parts analysis (through publication of The Spin-Off Report) has enabled them to identify these attributes, which include operational, financial, and managerial factors. While we have had success locating companies prior to them announcing a positive catalyst, the success of our recommendations has not been dependent on such an event to unlock shareholder value. 

Sum-of-the-parts valuations on each company are updated daily, with detailed investment recommendations published when the market price presents an investment opportunity with a significant margin of safety. Our analyst team is dynamically monitoring companies for valuation opportunities. The service includes 12 to 15 comprehensive recommendations each year, with routine updates published on each. Updates include: reports, a weekly wrap up, and direct contact from our account coverage team. Clients will also have access to our directory of past research reports and access to calls with our analyst team.

The Radar Screen

In addition to the 12 to 15 comprehensive recommendations published each year, clients also receive the monthly Radar Screen. The Radar Screen highlights an additional 10 to 20 companies each month that are potential candidates for a breakup or restructuring. This report provides 1 to 2 page summaries of each situation, and covers a wide range of potential restructuring stories with varying degrees of upside potential. Clients generally leverage this report as a key resource for idea generation.

  • > February 4, 2016
  • Harsco Corp.
  • Summary
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  • > January 4, 2016
  • Headwaters Inc.
  • Summary
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  • > September 3, 2014
  • Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSC)
  • Summary
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  • > November 1, 2013
  • Gannett Co.
  • Summary
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The service provides detailed analysis and insight on every announced merger and acquisition in North, South, and Central America greater than US$500 million in value. Within 24 hours after announcement of a new deal, a comprehensive initiation report will be published, followed by subsequent reports as additional analysis is performed.

Reports will typically be divided into three sections:

  • Part 1: Key Data - A concise overview of transaction details, financing and solicitation terms, relevant valuation multiples, and a timetable of key events. Necessary conditions to the merger, MAC carve-outs, break fees, antitrust related clauses, governing law, and key shareholders are also presented in an easily digestible format.
  • Part 2: Event Analysis - In addition to ROIC and valuation analysis, an overview of business segments, revenue sources, and key fundamental business drivers for both target and acquirer will be presented.  Antitrust issues, valuation analysis, and potential counter bidders are presented along with a synopsis of the merger agreement in which key issues are distilled and communicated clearly to clients.
  • Part 3: Viewpoint & Trade Recommendation - Every report includes a clear opinion on each deal, accompanied by actionable trading recommendations when appropriate. Any unusual clauses or exclusions will be highlighted here with the key takeaway typically appearing in the subject of the email and on the front page of each report.

Coverage of Potential Acquisition Targets:

The service routinely focuses on potential takeout candidates, in which a strong rationale for a deal has been identified. These reports include a brief section discussing the business fundamentals, financial position, and attractiveness of the company, followed by a section containing thorough analysis of the potential transaction. Valuation analysis will typically utilize a range of methods, incorporating potential synergies, multiple IRR scenarios, and LBO sensitivity, if appropriate.

Structure of Service and Analyst Access:

  • Comprehensive Initiation and Update Reports - In depth coverage and updates on announced and potential acquisitions (as described above).
  • Calendar & Estimated Returns - A biweekly publication providing a forward looking timetable of key events, a summary of recent adjustments to deal terms, estimated closing dates and annualized returns, and a one page overview of terms, conditions, break fees, antitrust, key dates, and risk/reward commentary on each deal.
  • Daily Notes - Pre-market coverage of key events, new deals, and updates on announced and potential acquisitions.
  • On-line Research Archive - Secure access to a searchable website of all prior publications.
  • Analyst Access - Analyst contact is unlimited. Regular dialogue is welcomed and encouraged.
  • > May 12, 2016
  • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) / JAB
  • Summary
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  • > April 25, 2016
  • Rite Aid (RAD) / Walgreens (WBA)
  • Summary
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  • > April 15, 2016
  • Medivation (MDVN)
  • Summary
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  • > January 19, 2016
  • EMC Corp (EMC) / Dell (DELL)
  • Summary
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The service provides detailed analysis and insight on every announced merger and acquisition in Europe greater than US$500 million in value. Within 24 hours after announcement of a new deal, a comprehensive initiation report will be published, followed by subsequent reports as additional analysis is performed.

Reports will typically be divided into three sections:

  • Part 1: Key Data - A concise overview of transaction details, financing and solicitation terms, relevant valuation multiples, and a timetable of key events. Necessary conditions to the merger, MAC carve-outs, break fees, antitrust related clauses, governing law, and key shareholders are also presented in an easily digestible format.
  • Part 2: Event Analysis - In addition to ROIC and valuation analysis, an overview of business segments, revenue sources, and key fundamental business drivers for both target and acquirer will be presented.  Antitrust issues, valuation analysis, and potential counter bidders are presented along with a synopsis of the merger agreement in which key issues are distilled and communicated clearly to clients.
  • Part 3: Viewpoint & Trade Recommendation - Every report includes a clear opinion on each deal, accompanied by actionable trading recommendations when appropriate. Any unusual clauses or exclusions will be highlighted here with the key takeaway typically appearing in the subject of the email and on the front page of each report.

Coverage of Potential Acquisition Targets:

The service routinely focuses on potential takeout candidates, in which a strong rationale for a deal has been identified. These reports include a brief section discussing the business fundamentals, financial position, and attractiveness of the company, followed by a section containing thorough analysis of the potential transaction. Valuation analysis will typically utilize a range of methods, incorporating potential synergies, multiple IRR scenarios, and LBO sensitivity, if appropriate.

Structure of Service and Analyst Access:

  • Comprehensive Initiation and Update Reports - In depth coverage and updates on announced and potential acquisitions (as described above).
  • Calendar & Estimated Returns - A biweekly publication providing a forward looking timetable of key events, a summary of recent adjustments to deal terms, estimated closing dates and annualized returns, and a one page overview of terms, conditions, break fees, antitrust, key dates, and risk/reward commentary on each deal.
  • Daily Notes - Pre-market coverage of key events, new deals, and updates on announced and potential acquisitions.
  • On-line Research Archive - Secure access to a searchable website of all prior publications.
  • Analyst Access - Analyst contact is unlimited. Regular dialogue is welcomed and encouraged.
  • > March 27, 2015
  • Rexam (REX LN) / Ball Corp (BLL US) - CanTech Conference Barcelona
  • Summary
  • View PDF
  • > December 23, 2014
  • New Britain Palm Oil (NBPO LN) / Sime Darby (SIME MK)
  • Summary
  • View PDF
  • > October 14, 2014
  • Flughafen Wien (FLU AV) / IFM Investors
  • Summary
  • View PDF

The service provides detailed analysis and insight on every announced merger and acquisition in the Asia-Pacific region greater than US$500 million in value. Within 24 hours after announcement of a new deal, a comprehensive initiation report will be published, followed by subsequent reports as additional analysis is performed.

Reports will typically be divided into three sections:

  • Part 1: Key Data - A concise overview of transaction details, financing and solicitation terms, relevant valuation multiples, and a timetable of key events. Necessary conditions to the merger, MAC carve-outs, break fees, antitrust related clauses, governing law, and key shareholders are also presented in an easily digestible format.
  • Part 2: Event Analysis - In addition to ROIC and valuation analysis, an overview of business segments, revenue sources, and key fundamental business drivers for both target and acquirer will be presented.  Antitrust issues, valuation analysis, and potential counter bidders are presented along with a synopsis of the merger agreement in which key issues are distilled and communicated clearly to clients.
  • Part 3: Viewpoint & Trade Recommendation - Every report includes a clear opinion on each deal, accompanied by actionable trading recommendations when appropriate. Any unusual clauses or exclusions will be highlighted here with the key takeaway typically appearing in the subject of the email and on the front page of each report.

Coverage of Potential Acquisition Targets:

The service routinely focuses on potential takeout candidates, in which a strong rationale for a deal has been identified. These reports include a brief section discussing the business fundamentals, financial position, and attractiveness of the company, followed by a section containing thorough analysis of the potential transaction. Valuation analysis will typically utilize a range of methods, incorporating potential synergies, multiple IRR scenarios, and LBO sensitivity, if appropriate.

Structure of Service and Analyst Access:

  • Comprehensive Initiation and Update Reports - In depth coverage and updates on announced and potential acquisitions (as described above).
  • Calendar & Estimated Returns - A biweekly publication providing a forward looking timetable of key events, a summary of recent adjustments to deal terms, estimated closing dates and annualized returns, and a one page overview of terms, conditions, break fees, antitrust, key dates, and risk/reward commentary on each deal.
  • Daily Notes - Pre-market coverage of key events, new deals, and updates on announced and potential acquisitions.
  • On-line Research Archive - Secure access to a searchable website of all prior publications.
  • Analyst Access - Analyst contact is unlimited. Regular dialogue is welcomed and encouraged.
  • > September 12, 2014
  • Wotif.com (WTF AU) / Expedia Inc (EXPE US)
  • Summary
  • View PDF

The European Spin-Off & Restructuring Report provides comprehensive coverage of every European spin-off situation, as well as other restructurings and special situations. Coverage may include carve-outs, minority stake distributions, as well as non-divestiture situations such as activist led-turnarounds and management changes. Coverage of each spin-off begins upon announcement and continues through the first quarter of trading. Within several hours of a spin-off announcement, a summary and initial valuation report is published. A comprehensive analysis of each spin-off is typically published months before the share distribution occurs, providing fair value estimates for the pre-spin company and each entity after distribution. The European Spin-Off & Restructuring Calendar, published monthly, monitors the status of every pending spin-off as well as other situations under coverage. The European Spin-Off & Restructuring Report Compendium provides an effective forum for Murray Stahl to discuss these situations, and broad investment themes. The European Spin-Off & Restructuring Report Radar Screen, also published monthly, provides an overview of European companies determined by our analysis to be potential break-up candidates.  

Please note this service was previously known as The Global Spin-Off Report.

  • > June 10, 2013
  • Sociedad Matriz SAAM S.A. (SM-SAAM)
  • Summary
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  • > March 28, 2012
  • Compania Sud Americana de Vapores S.A.
  • Summary
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  • > July 12, 2011
  • Aker Solutions ASA / Kvaerner ASA
  • Summary
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  • > June 8, 2011
  • Haldex AB / Concentric AB
  • Summary
  • View PDF
  • > May 23, 2011
  • PostNL N.V. / TNT N.V.
  • Summary
  • View PDF
  • > October 6, 2010
  • UTS Energy (UTS CN) / Silverbirch Energy (SBE CN)
  • Summary
  • View PDF