Prior to founding The Horizon Research Group in 1994, Murray Stahl was a senior investment officer in the Private Bank at Bankers Trust Company, where he managed approximately $600 million of individual, trust and institutional client assets. He directed the investments of Bankers Trust’s Special Opportunity, Utility and Tangible Assets funds, and served as a member of the Equity Strategy and Investment Strategy groups.  Mr. Stahl holds a BA in Computer Science and an MA in Asian History from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and an MBA from Pace University.  Ryan Casey of the Institutional Research Group (see link at top) collaborates with Murray Stahl in the production of the service.

Given the rising correlation between the MSCI-EAFE and S&P 500 indices over the last ten years, it could be argued that portfolio managers seeking to diversify internationally have gradually lost their ability to lower volatility through the purchase of foreign equities. The Global Contrarian avoids companies that rely heavily on U.S. operations or are vulnerable to a slowdown in the U.S. export market. The rising middle classes of Russia, India, and China and the commensurate increase in disposable incomes will inevitably benefit the most well positioned local companies. The identification of investment opportunities with potential for double-digit, uncorrelated returns requires analysis of companies whose success is tied to their local economy.

Investment opportunities arise when those companies with the strongest competitive positions and highest barriers to entry also exhibit high and sustainable returns on invested capital. Understandably, 95% of U.S.-based publicly traded companies with these characteristics trade at fair value. However, international equity analysis is plagued by misunderstanding and manipulated information, thereby creating an opportunity for The Global Contrarian to add value by navigating and deciphering this maze of information. 

The service provides in-depth reports on 18 to 22 non-U.S. domiciled companies annually. Updates on recommended companies are provided when events of material importance impact the investment thesis. The Global Contrarian Compendium, published on a monthly basis, highlights three to seven additional ideas monthly. Presented in an open Q & A format, the Compendium provides an effective forum for the discussion of new investment ideas, previous recommendations, and general thoughts on the investment climate.

 

In addition to the in-depth reports and monthly Compendiums, Murray welcomes calls from clients to discuss their respective philosophies and new ideas. The Global Contrarian will be most valuable to those clients who engage Murray in regular discussions.