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Unbiased Arbitrage Analysis

The services listed here provide investment analysis in three primary areas:  Risk arbitrage, capital structure arbitrage, and high-yield investing.  The three M&A focused research services published by European Research LTD, when combined, cover the vast majority of M&A activity worldwide.  Capital structure arbitrage ideas are provided by the Fixed Income Contrarian and the European Capital Structure Report.  The Fixed Income Contrarian also publishes investment ideas in high-yield, and distressed securities.

Please note that the Bits and Pieces report (listed under the "International Equities" category), is a monthly arbitrage report that identifies opportunties in stub securities across the globe.  Bits and Pieces is included with a subscription to the Spin-Off Report, or can be provided on stand-alone basis.

All research services provide unlimited access to their respective analysts.

Arbitrage & Fixed Income

TitleProducer
Americas Merger Report European Research Group
The Americas Mergers and Acquisitions Report, provides analysis of all announced mergers and acquisitions in North, South and Central America with a target over 500 million U.S. dollars in market capitalization.  David Roden, who has extensive knowledge of the risk arbitrage and derivatives markets, leads the London bases research team, European Research, LTD.  Fundamental research and trading analysis is provided on each transaction.  Daily notes and weekly updates keep clients current on all transactions under coverage, with ongoing news and deal analysis covering legal issues, sector strategies, counter-bidders, valuations and timing.  The service also provides unlimited contact with the team of analysts, extensive research on pre-announced situations as well as website access to all current and past research reports.
PDF Americas Merger Summary of Discounts and Estimated Returns - September, 23, 2009
PDF Toromont Hostile Bid for Enerflex - Comprehensive Analysis, Published November 24, 2009.
PDF Varian - Agilent Merger Analysis - Published July 28, 2009
PDF Natco - Cameron Merger Analysis, Published August 4, 2009
PDF Metavante - FIS Merger Analysis, Published April 2, 2009


Asia-Pacific Merger Report European Research Group
The Asia-Pac Merger Report provides analysis of all announced mergers and acquisitions with a target in Asia, Australia, Eastern Europe and the Pacific Rim with a market capitalization over 500 million U.S. dollars.  The service is written by David Roden and and his team of analysts at European Research LTD.  Fundamental research and trading analysis is provided on each transaction.  Daily notes and weekly updates keep clients current on all transactions under coverage, with ongoing news updates and deal analysis covering legal issues, sector strategies, counter-bidders, valuations and timing.  The service also provides unlimited contact with the analyst team, extensive research on pre-announced situations, as well as website access to all current and past research reports.
PDF Nufarm - Sinochem Preannouncement Analysis: Published September 16, 2009, prior to Sinochem bid.
PDF September 2009 - Asia/Pacific, Africa M&A Calendar


European Merger Report European Research Group
The European Merger Report provides analysis of all announced mergers with a European target of €500m or greater in market capitalization.  David Roden, who has extensive knowledge of the European risk arbitrage and derivative markets, leads the London based research team.  Detailed analysis of each bid incorporates the regulatory differences across European markets, and adjusts
strategy accordingly.  The service also provides routine updates, event calendars, and contact with the analyst team.  Extensive pre-announced work is an important part of the service, and a website with an archive of research is provided to all clients.
PDF Tandberg Preannouncement Analysis: Published July 21, 2009, prior to Cisco bid.
PDF November 2009 - European M&A Calendar


European Capital Structure Arbitrage Report European Research Group
The European Capital Structure Arbitrage Report is also authored by David Roden, and identifies relative mispricing and trading opportunities in liquid, quoted securities issued by European companies. The focus is on the valuations of listed debt, convertible bonds and equity. The strategies employed may be event-driven or based on relative pricing anomalies. The companies covered normally have an equity market cap in excess of €500 million. Publications include initial coverage reports, and regular updates covering open strategies and trading recommendations.  As with all European Research services, subscribers have unlimited access to the analysts and a internet-based archive of all published reports. 


The Fixed Income Contrarian Horizon Research Group
In August 2009, The Distressed Securities Report and The Capital Structure Arbitrage Report, both published by the Horizon Research Group, were combined into a comprehensive fixed-income reported entitled, The Fixed Income-Contrarian. The Fixed Income Contrarian identifies fixed income strategies ranging from high-yield investments to capital structure arbitrage opportunities.  Recommendations in distressed securities include situations where the insolvency implied by the price of a particular security lies in direct contrast with Horizon’s view of financial recovery.  The report will also identify debt securities that present intrinsic recovery value for pre-petition creditors through the conversion of corporate debt to equity.

The service examines and identifies debt securities that exhibit an asymmetrically favorable risk/return profile, due to relative mispricing within a capital structure.  Strategies employed will provide a high return in the positive case, but with limited or well-defined limit of loss in the negative case.  Generally, the abridgement of risk is achieved through an arbitrage or hedge transaction with a second or even third security, typically within the capital structure of the same company.
PDF Recommendation to Purchase Saks Senior and Convertible Notes - December 19, 2008
PDF W.R. Grace (GRA) - Equity Recommedation prior to emergence from Chapter 11 - Published December 11, 2008
PDF February 2009 "Distressed Securites Report Compendium"


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