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The Equity Yield Curve

At the core of the Horizon's research process lies the idea of the equity yield curve, which is described in Murray Stahl's words below.

“I believe that there exists an equity yield curve that in principle is very similar to the bond yield curve, with some salient distinctions. Unlike bonds, if you thought of corporate earnings as coupons, the equity coupons are uncertain. My assertion of the equity yield curve is that the two big risks are the magnitude and the timing of the equity coupon, so to speak. Investors spend much more attention on the timing than the magnitude. Since at the end of the day every security must have a clearing price, how is the clearing price established in the market?  The greater the uncertainty in relation to the timing of the equity coupons (we would say, as analysts, ‘cash flow’), the greater discount rate applied. It is a radically different process intellectually than merely making a decision to buy a certain security until such time as it shows its promise or it is confirmed that it’s never going to show its promise, in which case it’s going to be disposed of. So the companies that have this indeterminate nature of revealing their cash flow are discounted at these truly amazing rates. If you’re patient, you can benefit from that. You’ve all heard people say as analysts, ‘This stock looks interesting, but there are no catalysts to value realization. The catalysts may be several years from now, so why buy it?  They may be right, but nonetheless, the security is going to trade. Ergo, it must have a clearing price established. Now everyone knows that the catalysts won’t happen this year, therefore its clearing price has to somehow discount that reality. Therefore its earnings several years from now are going to be discounted at a much higher rate. Should you buy that security, you’re going to earn that discounted rate. By definition, by focusing on the equity yield curve as a source of ideas, you’re really focusing on the highest discount rate.   The margin of safety is generally expressed as a significant discount to intrinsic or liquefiable value. The equity yield curve viewed as a discounting mechanism—buying the highest discounted rate—actually gives you a lot of margin of safety in your forecasts." - Murray Stahl, NYSSA, November 2007
Horizon Research Group

A Brief Look at Murray Stahl - Founder and Director of Research of The Horizon Research Group

Murray Stahl founded the Horizon Research Group in 1994, and currently directs the research process for each of the six Horizon Research publications, which include The Contrarian Research Report, The Global Contrarian, The Fixed Income Contrarian, The Spin-Off Report, The Global Spin-Off Report, The Stahl Report, and the Devil’s Advocate Report.
 
Every Monday, Murray Stahl holds a weekly roundtable meeting devoted to the discussion of investment ideas and themes within the context of one research service. Five to ten additional investment recommendations are provided in each Compendium in addition to Murray’s thoughts on the general market environment and specific industries presenting investment opportunity.
 
Subscribers to the Horizon Research services are provided with access to Murray, and client conference calls are routinely conducted in which Murray discusses the most timely investment recommendations and themes.
 
Previously, Murray was with Bankers Trust Company for 16 years (1978-1994) as a portfolio manager and research analyst, and managed approximately $600 million of individual, trust and institutional client assets.  As the senior fund manager, he directed the investments of three of the bank’s Common Trust Funds: the Special Opportunity, Utility, and Tangible Assets Funds.  He served as a member of the Equity Strategy Group as well as the Investment Strategy Group, which established asset allocation guidelines for the Private Bank and was deeply involved in new product development.
 
Mr. Stahl holds a BA in Computer Science and an MA in Asian History from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and an MBA from Pace University.



Services Published by The Horizon Research Group

The Contrarian Research Report
The Contrarian Research Report, authored by Murray Stahl, employs a value-oriented, event-driven investment strategy that seeks to capitalize on the most inefficient and attractive investment opportunities in the small cap equity arena. Murray uses a time-intensive, investigative style of research to uncover behind the scenes, proprietary information about each company. Investment recommendations focus on companies with significant barriers to entry that have the ability to generate a high and sustainable return on invested capital. While the vast majority of such companies trade at or near fair value, opportunities present themselves when transitory events temporarily depress share prices. These situations are the primary focus of the research process.
PDF Buy Recommendation - OshKosh (OSK)- January 12, 2009
PDF Buy Recommendation - General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) - July 7, 2009
PDF December 2008 Contrarian Research Report Compendium
The Global Contrarian
The Global Contrarian report builds on the success of the domestically focused Contrarian Research Report by identifying companies primarily in Western Europe and Asia whose financial success in truly independent from the fluctuations in the U.S. economy.  Given the rising correlation between the MSCI-EAFE and S&P 500 indices over the last ten years, it could be argued that portfolio managers seeking to diversify internationally have gradually lost their ability to lower volatility through the purchase of foreign equities. The Global Contrarian avoids companies that rely heavily on U.S. operations or are vulnerable to a slowdown in the U.S. export market.  In order to qualify for recommendation, each company must meet the proven investment criteria of high and sustainable returns on invested capital, enabling them to act as compounding investment vehicles. The service focuses on companies with under-developed or undiscovered natural resources; monopoly, oligopoly or consolidating industry structures; with benefical exposure to the long term impact of emerging economies.
PDF Buy Recommendation on De La Rue plc (DLAR LN) from October 28, 2009.
PDF March 2009 "Global Contrarian Compendium"
The Global Spin-Off Report
The Global Spin-Off Report, produced by Horizon Research Group, identifies and analyzes all publicly announced spin-offs outside the United States. Coverage of each spin-off begins upon announcement, and continues through at least first quarter of trading as a indepedent company.  A monthly Global Spin-Off Calendar monitors the status of each transaction, and updates any relevant information such as the timing of the spin-off and share distribution ratios. A full summary and opinion on the spin-off is also provided. Updates are continually published to highlight trading ideas in situations where pricing and value anomalies exist.
PDF Buy Recommendation - Jelmoli Holdings (JEL SW) - December 29, 2008 (Spin-off from Athris Holding AG)
PDF October 2009 Global Spin-Off Calendar
The Stahl Report
The Stahl Report, authored by Murray Stahl, focuses on domestic companies with market caps above $5 billion and derives investment decisions based upon a philosophy consistent with value investing. Accordingly, recommendations will typically have low valuations based on earnings, sales, book value, cash flow or some other appropriate valuation measure. The service focuses on companies with sustainable business models with the ability to generate high and sustainable returns on capital. Recommendations will often maintain a leading or improving market position, undervalued asset or product portfolio, credible management or are in a position to capitalize on some impending event that will create a high level of future earnings growth. Murray Stahl’s Large Cap Value Report specializes in identifying companies in which the consensus believes the business is permanently impaired by irreversible circumstances, while our analysis indicates that the company’s problems to be transitory in nature with a high likelihood of financial improvement.
PDF Buy Recommendation - BlackRock (BLK) - February 17, 2009
PDF October 2009 Stahl Report Compendium
The Spin-Off Report
The Spin-Off Report, authored by Murray Stahl and Ryan Casey, monitors the progress of all U.S. spin-offs from announcement date through when-issued trading, and continues coverage through the first quarter of trading. The service provides fundamental research reports on the subsidiary prior to divestiture, and highlights arbitrage opportunities and trading techniques both before and after the record date. The Spin-Offs of Tomorrow report provides a detailed overview and analysis of companies believed to be potential spin-off candidates with a unique viewpoint and rationale. In addition, clients receive the Bits & Pieces report; a monthly supplement to the service that identifies mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities. The Spin-Off Report Compendium provides an effective forum to discuss restructurings outside the realm of spin-offs, as well as intriguing divestitures in foreign markets.
PDF Buy Recommendation - Clearwater Paper (CLW) - November 19, 2008 (Spin-Off from Potlatch Corp.)
PDF March 2009 Spin-Off Calendar
PDF May 2009 Spin-Off Report Compendium
Bits & Pieces
The Bits & Pieces Report is a monthly arbitrage supplement that identifies opportunities that occur when substantial fluctuations in the value of a company’s public and private holdings create an undervalued “stub” security.  Given the signficant cross-ownership of companies in international markets, many published ideas will be focused on international companies.  Pronouned valuation discrepancies may provide a more efficient means to gain exposure to equities held by the parent, or may be exploited by the use of pair trades or similar strategies. These situations are highlighted and monitored on a continuous basis.
PDF September 2009 Bits & Pieces Report
The Fixed Income Contrarian
In August 2009, The Distressed Securities Report and The Capital Structure Arbitrage Report, both published by the Horizon Research Group, were combined into a comprehensive fixed-income reported entitled, The Fixed Income-Contrarian. The Fixed Income Contrarian identifies fixed income strategies ranging from high-yield investments to capital structure arbitrage opportunities.  Recommendations in distressed securities include situations where the insolvency implied by the price of a particular security lies in direct contrast with Horizon’s view of financial recovery.  The report will also identify debt securities that present intrinsic recovery value for pre-petition creditors through the conversion of corporate debt to equity.

The service examines and identifies debt securities that exhibit an asymmetrically favorable risk/return profile, due to relative mispricing within a capital structure.  Strategies employed will provide a high return in the positive case, but with limited or well-defined limit of loss in the negative case.  Generally, the abridgement of risk is achieved through an arbitrage or hedge transaction with a second or even third security, typically within the capital structure of the same company.
PDF Recommendation to Purchase Saks Senior and Convertible Notes - December 19, 2008
PDF W.R. Grace (GRA) - Equity Recommedation prior to emergence from Chapter 11 - Published December 11, 2008
PDF February 2009 "Distressed Securites Report Compendium"
The Devil's Advocate Report
The Devil’s Advocate Report produces short-sale recommendations on highly visible, large capitalization stocks, as well as unique short-sale and “spread trade” recommendations in ETFs, options and other instruments. As companies progress from high growth businesses to stable, mature companies, valuations often remain high and become illogical. Such circumstances are frequently explored in The Devil’s Advocate Report. Recommendations are often accompanied by option strategies to reduce or eliminate downside risk.

The rapid growth in exchange traded funds has provided investors with the ability to efficiently gain exposure to specific groups of securities that share common characteristics across the equity and fixed-income spectrum. The Devil’s Advocate Report will utilize ETFs to exploit pricing anomalies between various classes of securities.
PDF "A Pairs Trade Opportunity in ETFs: Profiting from the Credit Spread Between High-Yield Municipal Bonds and U.S. Treasury Securities" - May 22, 2009
PDF Report recommending sale of CB Richard Ellis (CBG) - July 7, 2006
PDF May 2009 "Devil's Advocate Compendium"
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