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The Equity Yield Curve

At the core of the Horizon's research process lies the idea of the equity yield curve, which is described in Murray Stahl's words below.

“I believe that there exists an equity yield curve that in principle is very similar to the bond yield curve, with some salient distinctions. Unlike bonds, if you thought of corporate earnings as coupons, the equity coupons are uncertain. My assertion of the equity yield curve is that the two big risks are the magnitude and the timing of the equity coupon, so to speak. Investors spend much more attention on the timing than the magnitude. Since at the end of the day every security must have a clearing price, how is the clearing price established in the market?  The greater the uncertainty in relation to the timing of the equity coupons (we would say, as analysts, ‘cash flow’), the greater discount rate applied. It is a radically different process intellectually than merely making a decision to buy a certain security until such time as it shows its promise or it is confirmed that it’s never going to show its promise, in which case it’s going to be disposed of. So the companies that have this indeterminate nature of revealing their cash flow are discounted at these truly amazing rates. If you’re patient, you can benefit from that. You’ve all heard people say as analysts, ‘This stock looks interesting, but there are no catalysts to value realization. The catalysts may be several years from now, so why buy it?  They may be right, but nonetheless, the security is going to trade. Ergo, it must have a clearing price established. Now everyone knows that the catalysts won’t happen this year, therefore its clearing price has to somehow discount that reality. Therefore its earnings several years from now are going to be discounted at a much higher rate. Should you buy that security, you’re going to earn that discounted rate. By definition, by focusing on the equity yield curve as a source of ideas, you’re really focusing on the highest discount rate.   The margin of safety is generally expressed as a significant discount to intrinsic or liquefiable value. The equity yield curve viewed as a discounting mechanism—buying the highest discounted rate—actually gives you a lot of margin of safety in your forecasts." - Murray Stahl, NYSSA, November 2007
Horizon Research Group

A Brief Look at Murray Stahl - Founder and Director of Research of The Horizon Research Group

Murray Stahl founded the Horizon Research Group in 1994, and currently directs the research process for each of the six Horizon Research publications, which include The Contrarian Research Report, The Global Contrarian, The Fixed Income Contrarian, The Spin-Off Report, The Global Spin-Off Report, The Stahl Report, and the Devil’s Advocate Report.
 
Every Monday, Murray Stahl holds a weekly roundtable meeting devoted to the discussion of investment ideas and themes within the context of one research service. Five to ten additional investment recommendations are provided in each Compendium in addition to Murray’s thoughts on the general market environment and specific industries presenting investment opportunity.
 
Subscribers to the Horizon Research services are provided with access to Murray, and client conference calls are routinely conducted in which Murray discusses the most timely investment recommendations and themes.
 
Previously, Murray was with Bankers Trust Company for 16 years (1978-1994) as a portfolio manager and research analyst, and managed approximately $600 million of individual, trust and institutional client assets.  As the senior fund manager, he directed the investments of three of the bank’s Common Trust Funds: the Special Opportunity, Utility, and Tangible Assets Funds.  He served as a member of the Equity Strategy Group as well as the Investment Strategy Group, which established asset allocation guidelines for the Private Bank and was deeply involved in new product development.
 
Mr. Stahl holds a BA in Computer Science and an MA in Asian History from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and an MBA from Pace University.



Services Published by The Horizon Research Group

The Contrarian Research Report
The Contrarian Research Report, authored by Murray Stahl, employs a value-oriented, event-driven investment strategy that seeks to capitalize on the most inefficient and attractive investment opportunities in the small cap equity arena. Murray uses a time-intensive, investigative style of research to uncover behind the scenes, proprietary information about each company. Investment recommendations focus on companies with significant barriers to entry that have the ability to generate a high and sustainable return on invested capital. While the vast majority of such companies trade at or near fair value, opportunities present themselves when transitory events temporarily depress share prices. These situations are the primary focus of the research process.
PDF Buy Recommendation - Global Cash Access Holdings, Inc. - December 8, 2010
PDF Buy Recommendation - Penske Automotive Group, Inc. - January 31, 2011
PDF June 2010 Contrarian Research Report Compendium
The Stahl Report
The Stahl Report focuses on domestic companies with market caps above $5 billion and derives investment decisions based upon a philosophy consistent with value investing. Accordingly, recommendations will typically have low valuations based on earnings, sales, book value, cash flow or some other appropriate valuation measure. The service focuses on companies with sustainable business models with the ability to generate high and sustainable returns on capital. Recommendations will often maintain a leading or improving market position, undervalued asset or product portfolio, credible management or are in a position to capitalize on some impending event that will create a high level of future earnings growth. The Stahl Report specializes in identifying companies with valuations indicative of permanent earnings impairment, while our analysis indicates the company’s challenges to be transitory in nature with a high likelihood of financial improvement.
PDF Buy Recommendation - Lorillard, Inc. (LO) - March 10, 2011
PDF February 2011 Stahl Report Compendium
The Global Contrarian
The Global Contrarian Report identifies undervalued companies primarily in Western Europe and Asia that have minimal to zero exposure to U.S. economic cycles. These companies meet the proven investment criteria of high and sustainable returns on invested capital that enable them to act as compounding investment vehicles. THe service focuses on companies with under-valued or undiscovered natural resources; operating in monopoly, oligopoly or consolidating industries; often with substantial exposure to emerging economies.
PDF Buy Recommendation on De La Rue plc (DLAR LN) from October 28, 2009.
PDF March 2009 "Global Contrarian Compendium"
The Global Spin-Off Report
The Global Spin-Off Report identifies and analyzes all spin-offs outside the United States. Coverage of each spin-off begins upon announcement, and continues through the first quarter of trading. A monthly Global Spin-Off Calendar monitors the status of every pending transaction, and "Flash" reports are published to update clients on critical spin-off dates, share distribution ratios, finalized capital structure and other critical information. A comprehensive analysis of each spin-off is published before share redistribution occurs, providing fair value estimates for the parent company and spin-off. Another feature of the service, The Global Spin-Off Report Compendium, provides an effective forum for Murray Stahl to discuss a range of compelling divestitures in foreign markets.
PDF Buy Recommendation - Jelmoli Holdings (JEL SW) - December 29, 2008 (Spin-off from Athris Holding AG)
PDF October 2009 Global Spin-Off Calendar
The Spin-Off Report
The Spin-Off Report, authored by Murray Stahl, Steve Ferazani and Michael Wolleben, monitors the progress of all U.S. spin-offs from announcement date through when-issued trading, and continues coverage through the first quarter of trading. The service provides comprehensive research reports with fair value estimates on both subsidiaries and parent companies prior to divestiture. The Spin-Off Radar Screen, published monthly, provides an overview of companies believes to be potential spin-off candidates. In addition, clients receive the Bits & Pieces report; a monthly supplement to the service that identifies mispriced stub securities, tracking stocks and other arbitrage opportunities. The Spin-Off Report Compendium provides Murray Stahl with an effective forum to discuss the market environment for spin-offs, as well as investment ideas outside the traditional spin-off space, such as carve-outs and tracking stocks. Murray will also discuss spin-offs that have fallen out of favor with investors.
PDF June 2011 Spin-Off Calendar
PDF August 2011 Spin-Off Radar Screen
PDF April 2011 Spin-Off Comprehensive on Marathon Oil Corporation
Bits & Pieces
The Bits & Pieces Report is a monthly arbitrage supplement that identifies opportunities that occur when substantial fluctuations in the value of a company’s public and private holdings create an undervalued “stub” security.  Given the signficant cross-ownership of companies in international markets, many published ideas will be focused on international companies.  Pronounced valuation discrepancies may provide a more efficient means to gain exposure to equities held by the parent, or may be exploited by the use of pair trades or similar strategies. These situations are highlighted and monitored on a continuous basis.
PDF September 2009 Bits & Pieces Report
PDF June 2011 Spin-Off Bits & Pieces
The Fixed Income Contrarian
The Fixed Income Contrarian identifies fixed income strategies ranging from high-yield investments to capital structure arbitrage opportunities. Recommendations in distressed securities include situations where the insolvency implied by the price of a particular security lies in direct contrast with Horizon's view of financial recovery. The report will also identify debt securities that present intrinsic recovery value for pre-petition creditors through the conversion of corporate debt to equity. Additionally, the service will examine and identify debt securities that exhibit an asymmetrically favorable risk/return profile, due to relative mispricing within a capital structure. Strategies employed will provide a high return in the positive case, but with limited or well-defined limit of loss in the negative case. Generally, the abridgment of risk is achieved through na arbitrage or hedge transaction with a second or even third security, typically within the capital structure of the same company.
PDF Recommendation to Purchase Saks Senior and Convertible Notes - December 19, 2008
PDF W.R. Grace (GRA) - Equity Recommedation prior to emergence from Chapter 11 - Published December 11, 2008
PDF February 2009 "Distressed Securites Report Compendium"
The Devil's Advocate Report
The Devil’s Advocate Report produces short-sale recommendations on highly visible, large capitalization stocks. The author, Murray Stahl, believes that we've entered a period in which disruptive technologies will cause a severe shortening of product lifecycles, resulting in compressed margins and dramatic declines in growth rates. After several years of multiple expansion, many companies trade at valuations resembling the logical absurdities that were so prevalent ten years ago - valuations that don't reflect the onset of a painful transitional period. Wall Street's earnings estimates for many of these companies are far too optimistic and don't properly reflect these risks. As the inability of these companies to meet these aggressive forecasts becomes apparent, many stocks will experience large adverse reactions. The Devil's Advocate Report focuses on the identification of these companies.
PDF Short Recommendation - Netflix, Inc. - August 13, 2010
PDF April 2010 Devils Advocate Compendium
PDF Short Recommendation - CenturyLink, Inc. - January 21, 2011
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